The economic research department of BFA Bank of Angola expects that the economic recession in Angola should be around 4% this year.By 2019, the economy may stagnate or recover slightly.
In the first half of this year, Angola’s economic recession was 6%.The reason is that non-oil GDP is down 8%-9%, while non-oil is shrinking 5%.
Analysts from the economic research department said that this year is a year of economic recession from the perspective of oil exports expected at the end of 2018.From 6% of oil-based GDP in the first half of the year to an estimated 8%-9% decline, non-oil GDP has fallen 5% in the first six months.Although non-oil-based economic output increased more than average in the second half of the year, it will still cause annual GDP to fall by about 4%. And pointed out that the recession may be more serious than 2016.
Analysts added that the prospects for future oil production will be a difficult road, and it is necessary to continuously strive to change the economic environment.There are still some problems in Angola, and the government’s road will be very difficult.
Angolan President Lorenzo took office last September, with GDP falling by 2.5% in 2016 and only a slight drop of 0.15% last year, due to the accelerated growth of the non-oil economy by 3.1%.
The BFA analysis pointed out that 2019 will be the turning point for the economy to start to recover. Although the strength of the recovery is still unclear, as the new wells are put into operation, the oil economy will certainly not fall as much as in 2018.It is also unclear whether it will increase production next year.
Analysts said: The economy is still bleak in the near future, especially considering that the actual growth rate in the future may still be lower than the population growth. Even in the medium term, the oil economy cannot sustain growth and must diversify the industry.At the same time, the reform process begins at a very healthy and surprising rate and should reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.